Some highlights from a recent working paper from the Federal Reserve titled: The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata

From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024.

Employment Growth: Unauthorized immigrant workers boosted local employment numbers on a roughly one-for-one basis. The surge accounted for roughly 30% of local employment growth in the average metropolitan area.

Wages: Researchers found no evidence that the sudden influx of workers lowered average local wages. However, the report did note a decrease in labor income per capita. This happened because the new workers generally filled lower-wage jobs, shifting the overall workforce average.

Housing Impact: Because the housing supply could not expand fast enough, the surge acted as a major housing demand shock. This influx explained about 30% of home-price growth and 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area between March 2021 and March 2024. A 1% increase in unauthorized worker inflows was associated with approximately a 2.2% increase in home prices and about a 1.4% increase in rents.

Most of America is preparing for fewer students and young families, while the South faces the opposite problem: crowded classrooms and new housing needed.

The South’s overall growth reflects strong migration patterns that are adding children, people in prime family-building years and retirees — making it the only region gaining population across all five age groups tracked by the Census Bureau.

Source: Axios

Over the last decade, the share of young non-homeowners saying they will not buy a home in the foreseeable future has more than doubled, from 13% to 30%.

The share expecting to buy within 10 years has risen from 27% to 41%, suggesting younger non-homeowners are pushing their timeline out significantly.

Only 29% say now is a good time to buy a house, while 67% say it is a bad time.

65% expect prices in their area to increase over the next year, up eight percentage points from 2025.

22% of U.S. adults believe prices will stay the same and 12% think they will fall.

Source: Gallup

Multifamily starts dropped an incredible 41.6% from April’s revised figure to 284,000 units in May, according to the latest data release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. That annualized figure is also down 12.3% from last May.

Annualized multifamily starts increased sharply in the small Northeast region (up 70.5% to 56,000 units) and were up 38.7% in the Midwest region to 58,000 units. The South region’s multifamily starts decreased 51.3% to 81,000 units, while the West region saw starts increase modestly (7.6%) to 88,000 units.

Source: RealPage

The number of communities offering concessions remained steady at 16.9% in May 2026. While unchanged month-over-month, this concession activity marked a 4-point increase year-over-year and remains near the highest average level of monthly concession activity since mid-2014 (blue bars below).

The average concession (black line below) decreased 0.1 point on a monthly basis to 10.9% in May 2026. While that was a mild dip, it marked the first monthly decline in average concession amounts since March 2024.

Still, May’s 10.9% reading was up 1.7 points year-over-year and translates into nearly six weeks free on a 12-month lease. Overall, U.S. concessions have generally trended upward since reaching a decade low of 5.5% in mid-2016 and remain near their highest level since the post–Great Financial Crisis period (2010).

Overall concession use was once again led by the high-supply South at 22.1%, up 0.3 points month-over-month. 

Source: RealPage

Source: John Burns

The latest JBREC index shows a more cautious investment environment in Q2 2026 as rising inflation concerns, higher borrowing costs, and policy uncertainty weigh on multifamily sentiment.

Index values below 45 indicate a contracting market, while readings above 55 suggest expansion. Values between 45 and 55 reflect a market balanced between buyers and sellers.

• 33% of multifamily investors said capital conditions tightened quarter-over-quarter, versus just 16% who reported improvement.
• 72% of investors reported modifying acquisition underwriting, most commonly by increasing reserve and operating expense assumptions, raising financing cost expectations, and revising rent growth forecasts.
• 65% expect rent growth in high-supply Sunbelt markets to stay below 3% through 2028.
• 63% remain on the sidelines.

Build-to-rent investors largely hit pause during the quarter as uncertainty surrounding the 21st Century Road to Housing Act weighed on new investment decisions. Nearly two-thirds of investors paused future allocations, while 28% redirected capital elsewhere. 

Source: John Burns

Multifamily rent gains/losses were worse than the previous year (purple dots) every month during the last five months of last year. 

This year has been the opposite, as the gains each month (blue lines) have been much higher than the previous year. 

Source: RealPage

Overall construction materials costs increased 2.6% month over month in May and are now up 9.6% over the past year. Construction input costs have gotten pricier every month this year, and they’re rising at the fastest annual rate since the pandemic. Contractors are being hit by a double whammy of rising materials prices and much lower increases in what they can charge for new projects.

Source: Multifamily Dive

Cap rates for REITs continue to trade about 100 basis points higher than the 10-year treasury, but private companies continue to value their real estate below the 10-year treasury yield (with internal appraisal cap rates).

Either REITs are priced too cheap or the internal private real estate marks are too high.

Source: Nareit