Non-Homeowners Plan To Rent Longer, Or Forever

Over the last decade, the share of young non-homeowners saying they will not buy a home in the foreseeable future has more than doubled, from 13% to 30%.

The share expecting to buy within 10 years has risen from 27% to 41%, suggesting younger non-homeowners are pushing their timeline out significantly.

Only 29% say now is a good time to buy a house, while 67% say it is a bad time.

65% expect prices in their area to increase over the next year, up eight percentage points from 2025.

22% of U.S. adults believe prices will stay the same and 12% think they will fall.

Source: Gallup

Multifamily Starts Plunge In May

Multifamily starts dropped an incredible 41.6% from April’s revised figure to 284,000 units in May, according to the latest data release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. That annualized figure is also down 12.3% from last May.

Annualized multifamily starts increased sharply in the small Northeast region (up 70.5% to 56,000 units) and were up 38.7% in the Midwest region to 58,000 units. The South region’s multifamily starts decreased 51.3% to 81,000 units, while the West region saw starts increase modestly (7.6%) to 88,000 units.

Source: RealPage

Multifamily Concessions Continue To Rise In The Sunbelt

The number of communities offering concessions remained steady at 16.9% in May 2026. While unchanged month-over-month, this concession activity marked a 4-point increase year-over-year and remains near the highest average level of monthly concession activity since mid-2014 (blue bars below).

The average concession (black line below) decreased 0.1 point on a monthly basis to 10.9% in May 2026. While that was a mild dip, it marked the first monthly decline in average concession amounts since March 2024.

Still, May’s 10.9% reading was up 1.7 points year-over-year and translates into nearly six weeks free on a 12-month lease. Overall, U.S. concessions have generally trended upward since reaching a decade low of 5.5% in mid-2016 and remain near their highest level since the post–Great Financial Crisis period (2010).

Overall concession use was once again led by the high-supply South at 22.1%, up 0.3 points month-over-month. 

Source: RealPage

Fear Returns To The Multifamily Market In The Second Quarter Of 2026

The latest JBREC index shows a more cautious investment environment in Q2 2026 as rising inflation concerns, higher borrowing costs, and policy uncertainty weigh on multifamily sentiment.

Index values below 45 indicate a contracting market, while readings above 55 suggest expansion. Values between 45 and 55 reflect a market balanced between buyers and sellers.

  • 33% of multifamily investors said capital conditions tightened quarter-over-quarter, versus just 16% who reported improvement.
  • 72% of investors reported modifying acquisition underwriting, most commonly by increasing reserve and operating expense assumptions, raising financing cost expectations, and revising rent growth forecasts.
  • 65% expect rent growth in high-supply Sunbelt markets to stay below 3% through 2028.
  • 63% remain on the sidelines.

Build-to-rent investors largely hit pause during the quarter as uncertainty surrounding the 21st Century Road to Housing Act weighed on new investment decisions. Nearly two-thirds of investors paused future allocations, while 28% redirected capital elsewhere. 

Source: John Burns

Multifamily Construction Costs Surged Higher In May

Overall construction materials costs increased 2.6% month over month in May and are now up 9.6% over the past year. Construction input costs have gotten pricier every month this year, and they’re rising at the fastest annual rate since the pandemic. Contractors are being hit by a double whammy of rising materials prices and much lower increases in what they can charge for new projects.

Source: Multifamily Dive

Private vs. Public Cap Rates

Cap rates for REITs continue to trade about 100 basis points higher than the 10-year treasury, but private companies continue to value their real estate below the 10-year treasury yield (with internal appraisal cap rates).

Either REITs are priced too cheap or the internal private real estate marks are too high.

Source: Nareit

Brand New Multifamily Selling At Higher Cap Rates Than Older Vintage Properties

One of the multifamily sector’s most reliable pricing anchors has been flipped upside down: in many trades today, brand‑new Class A assets are selling at higher cap rates than older value‑add product.

With core and core‑plus funds largely sidelined the last few years, value‑add buyers have become the marginal price setters and they are underwriting newer deals with a very different set of return targets. These investors are paying up for older stock they can actively improve, while demanding a discount on new deliveries that offer less scope for forced appreciation.

The capital most eager to transact today is not looking for long‑duration, bond‑like income streams; it is looking for upside. The result is an upside‑down yield curve by vintage that would have been hard to imagine a few years ago.

Source: Globe St.