Author: Rose Multifamily

Carolinas Apartment Absorption Remains Strong

The Carolinas absorbed over 69,200 units in the year-ending 2nd quarter, which was a record for the region and more than double the five-year average.

When looking at demand as a share of the region’s total existing unit count, the Carolinas came out notably ahead of the nation’s other regions. The Carolinas had 995,200 existing apartment units as of 2nd quarter, which was the smallest volume nationwide. That means the past year’s demand total represents 7% of the Carolinas region’s existing stock of apartments. 

Source: RealPage

Apartment Demand Continues To Far Outpaces Starts

Across the U.S., apartment demand keeps climbing just as building starts have plummeted. In the year-ending 2nd quarter, nearly four more apartments were absorbed than started, with nearly 800,000 units absorbed, compared to about 215,000 units started. That was an increase from the already solid ratio of 3.4 from the 1st quarter. Charlotte and Raleigh had demand-to-starts ratios between 4.1 and 4.6.

Apartment supply volumes remain elevated, though completions continued to drop in 2nd quarter 2025.

The South saw the steepest pullback, delivering roughly 6,900 units less than in the first three months of 2025 and even fewer than the peak achieved in 3rd quarter 2024.

Source: RealPage

Using Real-Time Shelter Data Shows The Inflation Rate Is Already Below 2.0%

The shelter (rent) component of the monthly CPI inflation report continues to cool, even as the other combined inflation categories ticked up a bit in July.

Year-over-year shelter inflation has cooled in 25 of the past 27 months, from a peak of 8.8% in March 2023 down to 3.8% this month.

That means rent inflation is back around pre-pandemic levels again. However, the way the BLS measures rent/shelter inflation is deeply lagged and a heavily modeled dataset based on a tiny sample size. Private sector data providers show far more cooling than the BLS does.

If you use real-time rent data from Zillow and ApartmentList, shown in WisdomTree’s graphs below, headline and core inflation are already running well below 2.0% (the Fed’s target):

Source: Wisdom Tree & Jay Parsons

QCEW Employment Reports Shows Jobs Created Were Far Below BLS Monthly Data

The QCEW employment report includes nearly all U.S. jobs covered by state and federal unemployment insurance programs, over 95% of total U.S. employment, and includes actual payroll filing reports. It covers workers in private industry, as well as federal, state, and local government jobs.

The BLS employment report released on the first Friday of every month (the popular one you hear about on the news) is based on a survey covering about 1% of all businesses.

While the BLS data reports monthly, the QCEW report is released to the public on a large time delay. What did the most recent QCEW report say?

The number of jobs the BLS reported for the 9 months ending December 2024 was likely overstated by about 800,000. The BLS reported the U.S. adding 1.4 million jobs during that period, while the QCEW showed only 607,000.

57% lower. Jobs were overstated by about 88,000 per month during March 2024 – December 2024.

If the Federal Reserve was looking at this (accurate) data back in 2024, interest rates would be lower than they are today.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter