Each year, Allied Van Lines’ U.S. Migration Report analyzes where people are moving to in the United States. Migration trends show steady movement toward midsize cities, particularly in the lower-cost-of-living Southeastern states.
In spite of the unprecedented shifts to the U.S. migration map over the last few years, one thing remains the same: Americans prefer to move later in the week and during the summer to minimize the disruption to their daily lives.
Source: Allied Van Lines
U-Haul ranks states by their net gain (or loss) of customers who rented a one-way truck or moving containers in one state and dropped off their equipment in another state. It’s compiled from over 2.5 million annual one-way transactions across the U.S. and Canada.
Sunshine and warm weather remain appealing to the moving public, based on the top 10 growth states. Conversely, eight of the bottom 10 states are northern states.
Blue-to-red state migration, a hotly debated political topic that became more pronounced after the pandemic of 2020, continues to be a discernable trend. Seven of the top 10 growth states currently feature Republican governors, and nine of those states went red in the last presidential election. Conversely, nine of the bottom 10 growth states feature Democrat governors, and seven of those states went blue in the last presidential election.
The number in (parentheses) shows where the state ranked last year:
Source: U-Haul
Condo owners are struggling with the worst market in more than 10 years. Prices for U.S. condominiums posted their biggest annual decline since 2012.
The condo market’s softness reflects ways the housing market and buyer preferences are evolving. Many condo buildings are located in urban downtowns, which are less attractive than they used to be for people who now work from home at least part-time. Condos are popular in second-home markets, which have suffered from a slowdown in demand.
Rising homeowner-association fees due to higher insurance premiums and maintenance costs are also making condominium purchases less affordable. Another challenge for condo owners is that it can be difficult for buyers to get mortgages for units in buildings that need major repairs or don’t have enough property insurance.
Source: Wall Street Journal
The top inbound states of 2025 were:
The top outbound states for 2025 were:
Couple Key Notes:
Major southern migration magnets like Texas and Florida — historically powerhouse inbound destinations — are now experiencing balanced migration patterns, reflecting how rising housing costs are beginning to constrain even traditionally attractive regions.
A broad migration shift toward smaller cities and towns is redefining American relocation patterns.
Source: United Van Lines
In the third quarter of 2025, less than 50,000 units were delivered across southeast apartment markets. That was well behind the peak delivery load of more than 65,000 units per quarter during 2024.
The volume currently underway has also fallen, and by Q3 2027, annual supply in the southeast will move below pre-COVID averages, at about 24,000 units.
Source: RealPage
Master Planned & Build-To-Rent Communities:
Key Demographic Shifts Shaping Future Demand:
New Supply and Immigration:
Renting vs. Buying Affordability:
Source: The Rent Roll Podcast
The balance between job growth and rent growth—once a reliable indicator for multifamily investors—has become harder to read. Despite a cooling labor market and record apartment construction, the usual patterns linking employment gains to rising rents no longer hold as tightly.
While job growth has historically had a meaningful, positive impact on multifamily rents, the past few years have upended that relationship.
The labor market weakened this year, with total job growth in the third quarter reaching 187,000—a 53.1% year-over-year decline—and unemployment inching up from 4.0% in January to 4.4% in September. That kind of slowdown would typically damp apartment demand and pull down rents.
Analysis has found that, in 93 of 99 quarters studied, metros with higher multifamily delivery rates experienced weaker rent growth, even after accounting for job growth. Conversely, 94 of the same quarters showed stronger rent gains in areas with faster job growth, once new supply was controlled for.
Yet those correlations have shown signs of breaking down. The pandemic, remote work, and the uneven return to offices may have tightened or disrupted labor-housing linkages that once seemed dependable. Demographic shifts—such as an aging population—and heightened supply volatility could also be adding complexity.
Taken together, the data suggest that while job growth continues to shape rent trends, its influence is now mediated by new market dynamics. The multifamily sector’s long-trusted economic compass is no longer pointing straight.
Source: Globe Street
After a record 25 consecutive months of negative real wage growth, wages have now outpaced reported inflation on a year-over-year basis for 31 straight months.
Source: Charlie Bilello
Publicly traded REITs (dark blue circles) currently have a higher occupancy and trade at a higher cap rate than private real estate (light blue circles) in the same category.
“I have less than 1 percent of my net worth outside of Berkshire, but basically I had that portion all in REITs. They were all small ones at that time. They were selling at discounts. At that time they were selling at discounts to the values of properties.”
– Warren Buffett 2005
“REITs are way more suitable for individual shareholders than for corporate shareholders. And Warren has enough residue from his old cigar-butt personality that when people became disenchanted with the REITs and the market price went down to maybe a 20% discount from what the companies could be liquidated for, he bought a few shares with his personal money. So it’s nice that Warren has a few private assets with which to pick up cigar butts in memory of old times – if that’s what keeps him amused.”
– Charlie Munger
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