Year-to-date through September, apartment deliveries are at the lowest levels in seven years, with 231,000 units completing. It’s a huge drop from the peak of 435,000 units set in 2024’s first nine months.
Year-to-date absorption is at 450,000 units, which makes 2026 on track to be the third-highest year in modern history.
Vacancy rates have been steadily trending down in every month since March of this year, declining for the first time in nearly five years.
Rents growth is 2.8% year-to-date, the highest increase in four years
Low-supplied markets continue to dominate the rent growth leaderboard, but the dynamics are shifting fast, it’s the momentum story that is most interesting right now.
There’s only one known variable: There will be a lot less supply in the years to come than what we had from 2023-25. Even if demand slows down to more typical levels, it won’t take much to outpace supply and keep vacancy improving.
Source: Jay Parsons
