CRED iQ re-sized every multifamily loan in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and commercial mortgage-backed securities deals maturing between October 2026 and December 2028, $136 billion in all.
Nearly one in four (23%) of those loans, and 31% of the balance, could not refinance without new equity. Borrowers would need to bring $6.8 billion to the table. The median shortfall is 15% of the loan, or about $25,000 per apartment.
The gap is concentrated in loans written at the bottom of the rate cycle. Loans originated in 2021 and 2022, with a median coupon of 3.35%, now face refinancing rates roughly two to three percentage points higher. Some 46% of them, and 57% of their balance, need new equity, against 15% of the loans written in 2016 to 2018, which had years of rent growth to catch up with higher rates.
Source: CredIQ
