Some highlights from a recent working paper from the Federal Reserve titled: The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata
From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024.
Employment Growth: Unauthorized immigrant workers boosted local employment numbers on a roughly one-for-one basis. The surge accounted for roughly 30% of local employment growth in the average metropolitan area.
Wages: Researchers found no evidence that the sudden influx of workers lowered average local wages. However, the report did note a decrease in labor income per capita. This happened because the new workers generally filled lower-wage jobs, shifting the overall workforce average.
Housing Impact: Because the housing supply could not expand fast enough, the surge acted as a major housing demand shock. This influx explained about 30% of home-price growth and 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area between March 2021 and March 2024. A 1% increase in unauthorized worker inflows was associated with approximately a 2.2% increase in home prices and about a 1.4% increase in rents.
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