Manufacturing Is Thriving In The South

From the Washington Post: Manufacturing Is Thriving In The South:

The Rust Belt’s manufacturing decline isn’t primarily about jobs going to Mexico or China. It’s about jobs going to Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee.

In 1970, the Rust Belt was responsible for nearly half of all manufacturing exports while the South produced less than a quarter. Today, the roles are reversed, it is the Rust Belt that hosts less than one-fourth of all manufactured exports and the South that exports twice what the Rust Belt does.

This migration didn’t happen by accident. It was driven by specific policy choices. States such as Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina and Texas have aggressively courted manufacturers by promising business-friendly policy environments. 

Economic research suggests that labor conflict drove much of the decline of the Rust Belt. Right-to-work laws in the South, by contrast, created more operational flexibility and attracted capital. The average unionization rate in the Rust Belt is 13.3 percent; in the South, it’s 4.3 percent. Southern states’ political leaders are quite open about how they see right-to-work as foundational to their competitiveness.

The South offers cheaper electricity, a critical input for energy-intensive manufacturing. Ten states in the South have industrial electricity rates under 8 cents per kilowatt-hour; zero states in the Rust Belt do. Ohio has some of the country’s most restrictive wind-energy setback regulations. You know who doesn’t? Texas.

Southern states have built so much housing that they kept costs from becoming unaffordable. Last year, both North Carolina and South Carolina each built more than four times as much new housing per capita as Massachusetts, according to U.S. census data. Florida, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina and North Carolina, all built more housing per capita than all of Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, California, New York and Massachusetts. That is not just a 2024 dynamic. That is true for every single year going all the way back to 1993. Comparatively low-cost housing makes it easier to attract and retain workers, which further attracts capital, which adds yet more investment and jobs, and the virtuous cycle spins upward.

Taxes and permitting contribute, too. With the exceptions of Arkansas and Kentucky, the other 10 states that host an SEC football school are all in the top 15 in terms of low state-level taxes. Permitting processes move faster, too. To give just one example, Georgia has a certified-site program that can fast-track construction projects. With regard to land, as one industry analyst put it: “For big projects that are going to employ three, four, five thousand people, you can find free land — zero cost land.” Immigration helps a lot, as well. More immigrants live in the South than any other region of the country. The region with the fewest immigrants? The Midwest. Immigrants promote growth, makes the workforce more robust, and create the goods and services that support manufacturing.

In 1992, there was not a single auto plant in Alabama. Today, Alabama is the No. 1 auto-exporting state, producing more than 1 million vehicles a year. That’s brought more than 50,000 jobs and billions of dollars in investment. Instead of a Big Three, it has a Big Five (Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz and Mazda) along with an ever-expanding web of suppliers.

Even when companies do reshore operations, they are overwhelmingly choosing Southern states, not the Rust Belt. That hyper-automated Black & Decker factory went to North Carolina, not Pennsylvania. Manufacturing doesn’t chase nostalgia; it follows the bottom line.

North & South Carolina New Multifamily Supply

More than 59,400 units are under construction across North and South Carolina with an expected 45,700 of those units coming online in 2025. Virtually all of those units underway across the Carolinas are concentrated in six of the region’s 10 markets:

  1. Charlotte, NC: The largest market in the Carolinas had 25,064 units underway at the end of 2024. No stranger to new apartment supply, Charlotte has grown total inventory nearly 29% over the last five years, well above the national pace of roughly 11%. The 18,863 units expected to deliver to Charlotte in 2025 would set a 29-year high. With those new units, Charlotte’s existing unit base would expand another 7.8%
  2. Raleigh/Durham, NC: 13,799 units under construction in 4th quarter 2024, with 10,353 of those units expected to complete in 2025. Those new units would increase the unit base 5.0% this year. That growth rate comes on the heels of a prolonged supply wave as this market has grown total inventory 25% in the last five years.
  3. Asheville, NC: Punching above its weight in terms of new supply, developers are expected to add 3,509 units this year in Asheville, a small market in western North Carolina’s Blue Ridge Mountains. That would grow the existing unit count (26,745 units) a massive13.1%, notably above the U.S. norm. Over the past five years, the inventory base in Asheville has expanded 19.7%.
  4. Charleston, SC: Jumping to the Atlantic coast of South Carolina, supply is expected to climb with 3,867 units under construction. The majority of those units (3,213 units) are projected to complete in 2025, expanding total inventory 4.2% this year. This market has experienced a much smaller supply wave then neighboring markets as total inventory here has only grown 4.9% in the last five years.
  5. Greensboro, NC: Apartment inventory has expanded roughly 7% over the past five years. At the end of 2024, there were 3,458 units under construction with 2,664 of those units scheduled to complete in 2025. That would expand total inventory another 2.3% this year.
  6. Wilmington, NC: 3,212 units were underway at the end of 2024. This year, 2,438 of those units are expected to complete, growing total inventory 8.0%. In the last five years, this market has grown total inventory a staggering 36%

Four other markets round out the 10 largest apartment markets in North and South Carolina.

  • Myrtle Beach, SC: 2,168 units of new supply in 2025, growing inventory 4.0%. Existing unit count has expanded 31.2% over the last five years.
  • Greenville/Spartanburg, SC: During the past five years, inventory ballooned 20.8%. Another 1,200 units are expected to deliver in 2025, increasing inventory 1.5%.
  • Fayetteville, NC and Columbia, SC: Two smaller markets, both are expected to add roughly 700 units in 2025.

Source: RealPage