The New Tenant Rent Index

The BLS’ New Tenant Rent Index fell 9.3% year-over-year through the end of Q2 2025. This data tracks what is happening with rents much closer to real time and tends to lead the shelter component of CPI (which tracks the rental market on a significant lag and uses a concerning amount of survey data).

If the CPI’s shelter component “catches down” to the New Tenant Rent Index it would provide significant downward pressure on CPI prints in the coming months.

Carolinas Apartment Absorption Remains Strong

The Carolinas absorbed over 69,200 units in the year-ending 2nd quarter, which was a record for the region and more than double the five-year average.

When looking at demand as a share of the region’s total existing unit count, the Carolinas came out notably ahead of the nation’s other regions. The Carolinas had 995,200 existing apartment units as of 2nd quarter, which was the smallest volume nationwide. That means the past year’s demand total represents 7% of the Carolinas region’s existing stock of apartments. 

Source: RealPage

Apartment Demand Continues To Far Outpaces Starts

Across the U.S., apartment demand keeps climbing just as building starts have plummeted. In the year-ending 2nd quarter, nearly four more apartments were absorbed than started, with nearly 800,000 units absorbed, compared to about 215,000 units started. That was an increase from the already solid ratio of 3.4 from the 1st quarter. Charlotte and Raleigh had demand-to-starts ratios between 4.1 and 4.6.

Apartment supply volumes remain elevated, though completions continued to drop in 2nd quarter 2025.

The South saw the steepest pullback, delivering roughly 6,900 units less than in the first three months of 2025 and even fewer than the peak achieved in 3rd quarter 2024.

Source: RealPage