U-Haul calculates each state’s net gain (or loss) of one-way equipment from customer transactions in a calendar year. It shows the states people are moving to (highest on the list) and where they are leaving from (lowest on the list). The number in parenthesis is where the state ranked in 2022.

2023 U-Haul Growth States

1.	TEXAS (1)
2.	FLORIDA (2)
3.	NORTH CAROLINA (4)
4.	SOUTH CAROLINA (3)
5.	TENNESSEE (6)
6.	IDAHO (10)
7.	WASHINGTON (23)
8.	ARIZONA (7)
9.	COLORADO (11)
10.	VIRGINIA (5)
11.	NEVADA (13)
12.	VERMONT (30)
13.	UTAH (12)
14.	WYOMING (33)
15.	DELAWARE (27)
16.	NEW MEXICO (19)
17.	ARKANSAS (43)
18.	GEORGIA (8)
19.	SOUTH DAKOTA (31)
20.	MINNESOTA (17)
21.	MONTANA (18)
22.	ALABAMA (20)
23.	OHIO (9)
24.	IOWA (21)
25.	HAWAII (–)
26.	WISCONSIN (16)
27.	INDIANA (14)
28.	MISSOURI (15)
29.	KENTUCKY (26)
30.	WEST VIRGINIA (25)
31.	MAINE (29)
32.	NORTH DAKOTA (37)
33.	KANSAS (39)
34.	ALASKA (41)
35.	NEBRASKA (32)
36.	RHODE ISLAND (40)
37.	OREGON (22)
38.	PENNSYLVANIA (24)
39.	MISSISSIPPI (34)
40.	NEW HAMPSHIRE (38)
41.	OKLAHOMA (42)
42.	CONNECTICUT (28)
43.	NEW YORK (46)
44.	MARYLAND (44)
45.	LOUISIANA (35)
46.	MICHIGAN (48)
47.	NEW JERSEY (45)
48.	ILLINOIS (49)
49.	MASSACHUSETTS (47)
50.	CALIFORNIA (50)

Half of all new multifamily supply went to the South in 2023. However, the relative deficits and vacancy spikes (70 – 100 bps) were similar in every region of the country. Why? The South also had the vast majority of the demand, more than all the other regions combined.

Source: Jay Parsons with Real Page

The South accounted for 87% of the country’s population growth in 2023, with a net migration of 1.4 million new residents, of which over 700,000 were domestic. The Midwest and West have both seen modest gains, while the Northeast’s population has fallen 0.1%.

Top 10 states for inbound/outbound moves in the continental U.S.

Inbound	Outbound
1. Maine	1. Illinois
2. North Carolina	2. Pennsylvania
3. New Hampshire	3. Louisiana
4. Montana	4. Minnesota
5. Washington	5. Indiana
6. Arkansas	6. Oregon
7. Florida	7. Iowa
8. New Mexico	8. Mississippi
9. District of Columbia	9. New York
10. Texas	10. Ohio

Source: Multifamily Dive

The following chart shows the percentage gains (or declines) for home values over a 1, 3 and 12 month period in the Carolinas.

The last column shows the percentage of the median income it takes to make a home payment (principle, interest, taxes and insurance) in that city. It assumes a 5% down payment and 30-year mortgage rates at 6.5%, which is where they were as of this morning.

Historically, borrowers were considered safe if less than 28% of their monthly payment was going to toward the mortgage payment. As of this month, every single city is above 28% with most significantly above, and that is coming off a massive decline in mortgage rates over the last 60 days (they were above 8% at the end of October).

City	State	Monthly	3 Month	Annual	%
Anderson	SC	0.07%	-0.06%	9.50%	42%
Graham	NC	0.47%	1.97%	8.70%	48%
Fayetteville	NC	0.40%	1.47%	8.10%	38%
Jacksonville	NC	0.58%	1.66%	7.90%	42%
New Bern	NC	0.38%	1.12%	7.80%	42%
Tarboro	NC	1.03%	2.36%	7.70%	29%
Charleston	SC	0.84%	3.50%	7.30%	60%
Goldsboro	NC	0.28%	0.82%	7.20%	40%
Oxford	NC	0.43%	1.34%	7.00%	41%
Aberdeen	NC	0.46%	1.05%	6.90%	38%
Sanford	NC	0.26%	1.22%	6.60%	45%
Shelby	NC	-0.83%	-1.62%	6.60%	38%
Asheboro	NC	0.51%	2.38%	6.40%	45%
Butner	NC	0.22%	0.68%	6.30%	32%
Greenville	NC	0.28%	1.31%	6.20%	38%
Henderson	NC	0.79%	1.34%	6.20%	34%
Lexington	NC	0.55%	2.43%	6.20%	51%
North Charleston	SC	0.59%	2.16%	6.20%	42%
Wilmington	NC	0.35%	1.20%	6.10%	57%
Burlington	NC	0.43%	1.65%	6.00%	35%
Boone	NC	0.33%	1.26%	5.80%	79%
Siler City	NC	0.13%	0.63%	5.80%	45%
Elkin	NC	0.39%	1.76%	5.70%	36%
Rocky Mount	NC	0.58%	1.93%	5.70%	36%
Wilson	NC	0.24%	0.81%	5.70%	47%
Chapel Hill	NC	0.41%	2.03%	5.60%	61%
Elizabeth City	NC	0.72%	2.35%	5.60%	39%
Lenoir	NC	0.55%	2.24%	5.40%	40%
King	NC	0.52%	1.81%	5.30%	35%
Southern Pines	NC	0.16%	0.51%	5.00%	55%
High Point	NC	0.25%	1.40%	4.80%	38%
Morganton	NC	0.44%	1.82%	4.70%	44%
Winston-Salem	NC	0.60%	2.43%	4.70%	40%
Laurinburg	NC	0.31%	1.24%	4.60%	33%
Newport	NC	0.36%	0.85%	4.60%	44%
Waynesville	NC	0.50%	40.51%	4.60%	56%
Hillsborough	NC	0.49%	1.88%	4.50%	47%
Greensboro	NC	0.31%	1.34%	4.40%	37%
Pinehurst	NC	0.16%	0.62%	4.40%	58%
Hickory	NC	0.42%	1.35%	4.20%	46%
Wilkesboro	NC	-0.26%	0.11%	4.20%	49%
North Myrtle Beach	SC	0.62%	1.34%	4.20%	51%
Columbia	SC	0.34%	1.10%	4.10%	37%
Lincolnton	NC	0.35%	1.77%	4.00%	41%
Spartanburg	SC	0.50%	2.06%	4.00%	38%
Asheville	NC	0.59%	1.95%	3.90%	66%
Goose Creek	SC	0.46%	1.52%	3.90%	40%
Sumter	SC	0.02%	0.32%	3.80%	31%
Kinston	NC	0.36%	0.52%	3.70%	32%
Lumberton	NC	0.10%	0.37%	3.70%	34%
Pittsboro	NC	0.16%	0.66%	3.60%	57%
Hendersonville	NC	0.23%	1.05%	3.40%	56%
Greenville	SC	0.44%	1.14%	3.40%	40%
Clemmons	NC	0.29%	1.12%	3.20%	41%
Jamestown	NC	0.10%	0.67%	3.20%	49%
Arden	NC	0.50%	1.68%	3.00%	52%
Easley	SC	0.20%	0.48%	3.00%	41%
Creedmoor	NC	0.18%	0.80%	2.70%	41%
Salisbury	NC	0.37%	1.24%	2.40%	42%
Statesville	NC	0.26%	1.21%	2.20%	45%
Carthage	NC	-0.07%	0.37%	2.10%	39%
Kernersville	NC	0.27%	1.04%	2.10%	40%
Leland	NC	0.15%	0.46%	2.10%	50%
Florence	SC	0.54%	0.86%	1.90%	32%
Greer	SC	0.21%	0.76%	1.80%	38%
Summerville	SC	0.28%	1.01%	1.80%	44%
Boiling Springs	SC	0.25%	1.26%	1.70%	41%
Duncan	SC	0.29%	1.26%	1.60%	37%
Orangeburg	SC	0.43%	0.46%	1.50%	42%
Apex	NC	0.25%	1.10%	1.40%	39%
Mebane	NC	0.19%	1.30%	1.40%	43%
Simpsonville	SC	0.11%	0.50%	1.40%	37%
Durham	NC	0.33%	1.21%	0.90%	49%
Raleigh	NC	0.06%	0.46%	0.90%	46%
Charlotte	NC	0.41%	1.59%	0.80%	46%
Shallotte	NC	-0.05%	-0.21%	0.80%	50%
Myrtle Beach	SC	-0.02%	0.24%	0.30%	46%
Conway	SC	0.19%	0.37%	-0.30%	50%
Lancaster	SC	0.26%	0.82%	-0.50%	50%
Morrisville	NC	0.24%	0.67%	-1.20%	37%
Clayton	NC	0.06%	0.16%	-3.20%	39%
Gaffney	SC	-1.10%	-4.20%	-4.80%	45%
Newberry	SC	0.16%	-1.05%	-9.00%	35%

Source: Zillow

After a brief decline in November, distress in multifamily CMBS loans U-turned higher again in to finish the year. The chart below shows the percentage of multifamily CMBS loans delinquent, with special servicers or unable to be paid off at maturity (green line).

It’s important to note that CMBS loans make up a small percentage of the multifamily pie, but they provide more transparent information compared to other loan types.

Industrial saw a large drop in December as a few very large loans were able to get worked out.

Source: CrediQ

Every city showed rent declines month-over-month and the last quarter of 2023. Only two (Rock Hill and Garner) managed to barely stay positive over the last six months.

City	1 Month	3 Month	6 Month	1 Year
High Point, NC	-0.80%	-3.38%	-7.00%	-11.01%
Matthews, NC	-1.21%	-4.45%	-5.89%	-6.64%
Wilmington, NC	-0.92%	-2.40%	-3.95%	-4.38%
Morrisville, NC	-0.40%	-4.79%	-7.44%	-4.35%
Raleigh, NC	-1.15%	-3.27%	-4.13%	-2.97%
Cary, NC	-0.93%	-2.42%	-3.43%	-2.68%
Durham, NC	-1.23%	-3.32%	-3.80%	-2.01%
Simpsonville, SC	-0.90%	-2.88%	-5.09%	-1.46%
Burlington, NC	-1.16%	-3.39%	-3.15%	-0.75%
Charleston, SC	-1.00%	-4.25%	-4.83%	-0.70%
Mount Pleasant, SC	-0.87%	-1.81%	-1.13%	0.35%
Winston-Salem, NC	-1.57%	-4.15%	-3.32%	0.80%
Mooresville, NC	-0.36%	-0.36%	-2.09%	0.86%
Apex, NC	-0.72%	-2.83%	-2.95%	2.30%
North Charleston, SC	0.00%	0.27%	-0.99%	2.43%
Greenville, SC	-0.09%	-0.88%	-0.61%	2.91%
Greensboro, NC	-0.54%	-2.72%	-3.58%	2.94%
Chapel Hill, NC	-0.97%	-0.97%	-0.92%	2.97%
Fayetteville, NC	-2.40%	-5.43%	-4.37%	3.09%
Charlotte, NC	-1.00%	-2.49%	-2.13%	3.18%
Rock Hill, SC	-0.46%	-0.18%	0.89%	3.25%
Garner, NC	-0.08%	-0.24%	1.33%	3.47%
Huntersville, NC	-0.90%	-0.90%	-2.07%	4.08%
Gastonia, NC	-0.98%	-0.88%	-2.03%	4.10%
Columbia, SC	-0.39%	-1.63%	-1.47%	5.35%

Source: Apartment List

It’s more helpful to look at the increase in supply for a city based on the percentage of the current inventory vs. the total number of units.

1,000 new units added to Orlando with a population of 309,000 has a much larger impact than 1,000 new units added to Los Angeles with a population of 3,849,000.

Less permits lead to less starts, which lead to less completions.

Source: RealPage

Data Source:	Data Month:	MOM Change:	Annual Change	Data Release:
Green Street	Nov 2023	1.3%	-12.0%	December
MSCI	Nov 2023	-0.7%	-12.1%	December
	Average:	0.3%	-12.1%

One third of U.S. households are renters (45 million units).

Mom and Pop’s own the majority (80%) of the single-family investment properties:

However, there are certain cities where institutional investors own a higher concentration: