Higher education is hitting a demographic cliff. After years of growth, the pipeline of 18-year-olds is dwindling; a result of lower birthrates.
The largest number of Americans born in a single year arrived on campus in the autumn of 2025, and now a falloff is looming. College enrollments are forecast to drop 13% by 2041. In some parts of the country, especially the Midwest and the Northeast, the declines have already begun.
The demographic cliff is hitting just as another phenomenon is coming into play: a flight-to-quality, where the most sought-after schools are attracting an ever-growing number of applicants, while less-attractive schools draw fewer.
Part of the reason is rising skepticism about the value of a college degree. More families reason that if they are going to spend tens of thousands of dollars, the diploma better pay off with a good job—otherwise why bother?
Source: Wall Street Journal
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