The chart below is a weighted average of the 14 highest-supplied MSAs in the Sun Belt and Mountain markets: Austin, Atlanta, Denver, Phoenix, Raleigh/Durham, Charlotte, Nashville, San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Salt Lake City.
If you bought in a high supply Sun Belt market in 2019 and assumed 3.5% rent growth annually for seven years (light blue line below), you would have been exactly right. That proforma estimate converged with the actual actual path rents took (dark blue line below) this spring.
Source: Jay Parsons
Multifamily Market News 