The U.S. Population Could Shrink In 2025 For The First Time Ever

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For nearly 250 years, America has only known growth. 2025 could be the first year on record the US population shrinks. Population growth has two sources:

  • Natural increase (births minus deaths)
  • Net immigration (arrivals minus departures)

Last year, births outnumbered deaths by 519,000, and AEI estimates that net migration in 2025 could be negative 525,000. 

In many states, foreign-born workers make up more than a third of the construction workforce:

Source: Derek Thompson

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