The QCEW employment report includes nearly all U.S. jobs covered by state and federal unemployment insurance programs, over 95% of total U.S. employment, and includes actual payroll filing reports. It covers workers in private industry, as well as federal, state, and local government jobs.
The BLS employment report released on the first Friday of every month (the popular one you hear about on the news) is based on a survey covering about 1% of all businesses.
While the BLS data reports monthly, the QCEW report is released to the public on a large time delay. What did the most recent QCEW report say?
The number of jobs the BLS reported for the 9 months ending December 2024 was likely overstated by about 800,000. The BLS reported the U.S. adding 1.4 million jobs during that period, while the QCEW showed only 607,000.
57% lower. Jobs were overstated by about 88,000 per month during March 2024 – December 2024.
If the Federal Reserve was looking at this (accurate) data back in 2024, interest rates would be lower than they are today.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter
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