The Multifamily Bear Case: This Week’s Data

From the University of Michigan Consumer Survey – released 2/7/25

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases. This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise (one percentage point or more) in year-ahead inflation expectations.

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The Monthly ADP Payrolls Report – released 2/5/25:

  • What It Is: How many new jobs were added (or lost) in the private sector. It’s put together by ADP, a large payroll processing company.
  • Added 183,000 jobs vs. 148,000 expected
  • Last month’s report was revised up dramatically from 122,000 to 176,000
  • What It Means: While a strong jobs market helps tenants pay their rent, it also makes the Fed less likely to cut interest rates in the coming months